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Probability

🎓 Class 12📖 Mathematics Part-II📖 9 notes🧠 15 Q&A⏱️ ~14 min
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ProbabilityStudy Notes

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Introduction

Explanation

Introduction

Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the study of random phenomena or experiments. It provides a quantitative description of the likelihood or chance of occurrence of an event. In everyday life, many situations involve uncertainty — for example, predicting the weather, the outcome of a cricket match, or the chance of getting a head when tossing a coin. Probability helps us to analyze such uncertain events mathematically. The study of probability began with the analysis of games of chance and has now become a fundamental tool in statistics, science, engineering, economics, and many other fields. The concept of probability allows us to assign a numerical value between 0 and 1 to an event, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. This chapter introduces the basic concepts of probability, including random experiments, sample spaces, events, and different approaches to defining probability. It also covers conditional probability, multiplication theorem, and independent events, providing a comprehensive foundation for understanding and calculating probabilities in various contexts.

  • Probability quantifies the chance of occurrence of an event.
  • It applies to random experiments where outcomes cannot be predicted with certainty.
  • Probability values range from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event).
  • Used extensively in statistics, science, and real-world decision making.
  • Introduces fundamental terms like experiment, sample space, and event.
  • Forms the basis for advanced probability concepts like conditional probability and independence.
  • 📌 Probability: A measure of the likelihood of occurrence of an event, ranging from 0 to 1.
  • 📌 Random Experiment: An experiment with uncertain outcomes.
  • 📌 Event: A subset of outcomes from a random experiment.

Random Experiment, Sample Space and Events

Explanation

Random Experiment, Sample Space and Events

A random experiment is a process or action that leads to one of several possible outcomes, where the exact outcome cannot be predicted with certainty in advance. For example, tossing a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card from a well-shuffled deck are random experiments. The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample space, denoted by S. Each outcome in the sample space is called a sample point. For instance, when tossing a coin, the sample space is S = {Head, Tail}. When rolling a die, the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. An event is any subset of the sample space. It can be a single outcome (simple event) or a collection of outcomes (compound event). For example, in rolling a die, the event 'getting an even number' is E = {2, 4, 6}. Events can be classified as certain (the whole sample space), impossible (empty set), simple, or compound. Events can also be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously. Understanding these concepts is essential for defining and calculating probabilities. The section also introduces set operations such as union, intersection, and complement of events, which are used to describe combined events and their probabilities.

  • Random experiment: An experiment with uncertain outcomes.
  • Sample space (S): The set of all possible outcomes.
  • Event: Any subset of the sample space.
  • Simple event: An event with a single outcome.
  • Compound event: An event with multiple outcomes.
  • Mutually exclusive events: Events that cannot occur together.
  • 📌 Sample Space (S): The complete set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
  • 📌 Event: A subset of the sample space representing one or more outcomes.
  • 📌 Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events that cannot occur at the same time.

Classical Definition of Probability

Explanation

Classical Definition of Probability

The classical definition of probability applies when the sample space is finite and all outcomes are equally likely to occur. According to this definition, the probability of an event E is given by the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the

Practice QuestionsProbability

Includes NCERT exercise questions with answers

Q1.1. Given that E and F are events such that P(E) = 0.6, P(F) = 0.3 and P(E ∩ F) = 0.2, find P(E|F) and P(F|E)

Answer:

Given: P(E) = 0.6, P(F) = 0.3, P(E ∩ F) = 0.2 We know that: P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F) / P(F) = 0.2 / 0.3 = 2/3 ≈ 0.6667 P(F|E) = P(E ∩ F) / P(E) = 0.2 / 0.6 = 1/3 ≈ 0.3333

Explanation:

Using the definition of conditional probability: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) Calculate P(E|F) and P(F|E) by substituting the given values.

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Q2.2. Compute P(A|B), if P(B) = 0.5 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.32

Answer:

Given: P(B) = 0.5, P(A ∩ B) = 0.32 Using conditional probability formula: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = 0.32 / 0.5 = 0.64

Explanation:

Apply the formula P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) with the given values.

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Q3.3. If P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.5 and P(B|A) = 0.4, find (i) P(A ∩ B) (ii) P(A|B) (iii) P(A ∪ B)

Answer:

Given: P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.5, P(B|A) = 0.4 (i) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B|A) = 0.8 × 0.4 = 0.32 (ii) P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = 0.32 / 0.5 = 0.64 (iii) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) = 0.8 + 0.5 - 0.32 = 0.98

Explanation:

Use the formulas: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B|A) P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) Substitute the given values to find the answers.

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Q4.4. Evaluate P(A ∪ B), if 2P(A) = P(B) = 5/13 and P(A|B) = 6/7

Answer:

Given: 2P(A) = P(B) = 5/13 So, P(B) = 5/13 Then, P(A) = (5/13) / 2 = 5/26 P(A|B) = 6/7 We know: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) => P(A ∩ B) = P(A|B) × P(B) = (6/7) × (5/13) = 30/91 Now, P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) = (5/26) + (5/13) - (30/91) Calculate: 5/26 = 35/182 5/13 = 70/182 30/91 = 60/182 So, P(A ∪ B) = (35/182) + (70/182) - (60/182) = (105 - 60)/182 = 45/182 ≈ 0.2473

Explanation:

First find P(A) from the given relation 2P(A) = P(B). Use P(A|B) to find P(A ∩ B). Then use the formula for union of two events. Convert all fractions to a common denominator to simplify addition and subtraction.

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Q5.5. If P(A) = 11/11, P(B) = 11/11 and P(A ∪ B) = 11/11, find (i) P(A∩B) (ii) P(A|B) (iii) P(B|A)

Answer:

Given: P(A) = 11/11 = 1 P(B) = 11/11 = 1 P(A ∪ B) = 11/11 = 1 (i) Using formula: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) 1 = 1 + 1 - P(A ∩ B) => P(A ∩ B) = 1 + 1 - 1 = 1 (ii) P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = 1 / 1 = 1 (iii) P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A) = 1 / 1 = 1

Explanation:

Since all probabilities are 1, events A and B are certain. Use the union formula to find intersection. Then use conditional probability formulas.

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Q6.6. A coin is tossed three times, where (i) E : head on third toss , F : heads on first two tosses (ii) E : at least two heads , F : at most two heads (iii) E : at most two tails , F : at least one tail

Answer:

For each part, find P(E|F) and P(F|E) using the definition of conditional probability. (i) Sample space for three tosses has 8 outcomes. E: head on third toss = {HHT, HHH, THT, THH} F: heads on first two tosses = {HHT, HHH} P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = P({HHT, HHH})/P({HHT, HHH}) = 1 P(F|E) = P(E ∩ F)/P(E) = P({HHT, HHH})/P({HHT, HHH, THT, THH}) = 2/4 = 1/2 (ii) E: at least two heads = {HHT, HTH, THH, HHH} F: at most two heads = all except HHH, so {all except HHH} P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = P({HHT, HTH, THH})/P({all except HHH}) = 3/7 P(F|E) = P(E ∩ F)/P(E) = P({HHT, HTH, THH})/P({HHT, HTH, THH, HHH}) = 3/4 (iii) E: at most two tails = all outcomes except TTT F: at least one tail = all except HHH P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = P({all except TTT and HHH})/P({all except HHH}) = 6/7 P(F|E) = P(E ∩ F)/P(E) = P({all except TTT and HHH})/P({all except TTT}) = 6/7

Explanation:

Using the sample space of tossing a coin three times (8 outcomes), events E and F are identified. Then, conditional probabilities are computed using P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) and P(F|E) = P(E ∩ F)/P(E). The intersection and probabilities are calculated by counting favorable outcomes over total outcomes.

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Q7.7. Two coins are tossed once, where (i) E : tail appears on one coin, F : one coin shows head (ii) E : no tail appears, F : no head appears

Answer:

Sample space for tossing two coins: {HH, HT, TH, TT} (i) E: tail appears on one coin = {HT, TH} F: one coin shows head = {HT, TH} P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = P({HT, TH})/P({HT, TH}) = 1 P(F|E) = P(E ∩ F)/P(E) = P({HT, TH})/P({HT, TH}) = 1 (ii) E: no tail appears = {HH} F: no head appears = {TT} P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = P(∅)/P({TT}) = 0 P(F|E) = P(E ∩ F)/P(E) = P(∅)/P({HH}) = 0

Explanation:

The sample space has 4 outcomes. Events E and F are identified and their intersections found. Conditional probabilities are computed using the formula P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F). Since E and F are disjoint in part (ii), conditional probabilities are zero.

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Q8.8. A die is thrown three times, E : 4 appears on the third toss, F : 6 and 5 appears respectively on first two tosses

Answer:

Sample space size = 6^3 = 216 E: 4 appears on third toss = outcomes where third toss is 4 = 6 × 6 × 1 = 36 outcomes F: 6 and 5 appear on first two tosses respectively = outcomes where first toss = 6, second toss = 5, third toss any = 1 × 1 × 6 = 6 outcomes E ∩ F: first toss = 6, second toss = 5, third toss = 4 → only 1 outcome P(E) = 36/216 = 1/6 P(F) = 6/216 = 1/36 P(E ∩ F) = 1/216 P(E|F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) = (1/216)/(1/36) = 1/6 P(F|E) = P(E ∩ F)/P(E) = (1/216)/(1/6) = 1/36

Explanation:

Calculate the number of favorable outcomes for E, F, and their intersection. Use the total sample space of 216. Then apply conditional probability formula.

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